Whether it's election results or company appraisals, they often carry the burden of misplaced lessons, frequently drifting introspection toward confirmation bias. More than the loss itself, misinterpreting the message causes significant harm to individuals.
In 2004, when the NDA lost the election to UPA-1, many of us hastily blamed the "India Shining" campaign. It was perplexing why a pro-development government wasn't re-elected, so we searched for explanations, landing on the Gujarat 2002 riots as another potential reason.
On the other side, UPA-1 also believed that the "India Shining" campaign and the Gujarat riots contributed to their victory. Consequently, they doubled down on these themes and adopted a more extreme leftist stance by joining hands with Communist, and slowing doing Communisation of Congress
It was dawn of new era, Atal jee resigned from active politics, and L.K. Advani took over the reins and became the prime ministerial candidate. The message was clear: avoid Godhra and embrace socialism. Advani went a step further from his predecesor and controversially called Jinnah secular, leading to a dismal performance for the NDA in the 2009 elections.
While the NDA lost its way by embracing statesmanship and falling into the trap of Jinnah's secularism, the UPA believed their 2009 victory was solely due to Sonia Gandhi, dismissing Manmohan Singh's stance on the Nuclear Deal.
Narendra Modi, however, learned from the 2004 defeat. He realized the loss was not due to Godhra but to Vajpayee's attempt to distance the BJP from the RSS and his preoccupation with statesmanship. This historical inclination to placate the majority while creating fault lines led to misguided initiatives like "Aman ki Asha," without considering if Asha was interested in Aman in first place.
Modi made amends with the RSS, understood his core voter's desires, and became the first PM in 40 years to secure an absolute majority. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi, still deluded by the 2009 success, pushed initiatives like the Food Security Bill and the Communal Violence Bill, leading to a historic defeat.
The year 2024 feels like déjà vu, resembling 2004 in many ways, except that while Vajpayee lost power, Modi remains with a minority government. Nature has a way of balancing things; a weaker BJP helped Modi rise to power, and now, a weaker Modi might give rise to leaders like Yogi Adityanath, Himanta Biswa Sarma, and Devendra Fadnavis.
Whether in 2024 or 2004, the opposition is still consistent on misinterpreting the verdict. This election was likely the last chance for Rahul Gandhi to make a significant impact, as future elections will occur post-delimitation, requiring a fresh start, much like an IPL team rebuilds with Re-auction.
